President Trump Renews Call for Canada as 51st State Ahead of Elections, Impacts Betting Odds

During a March telephone call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, Trump proposed making Canada the 51st American state. PM Carney revealed the information in a public press conference on Thursday, before Canada's federal election scheduled for Monday.

Carney acknowledged that Trump brought it up again during their March 28 telephone call, which occurred in the first week of the Canadian campaign. While this revelation had yet to be disclosed, PM Carney, favored at 82% on Kalshi to be re-elected in the next election, described it as not an isolated incident. 

"The president brings this up all the time. He brought it up yesterday. He brought it up before," the PM said at a Thursday campaign press conference.

He added that Canada's sovereignty is not negotiable and further asserted, "To be clear, as I've said to anyone who's raised this issue in private or in public, including the president, it will never happen."

The topic has gained political currency as part of an overarching theme of tense U.S.-Canada relations, particularly during President Trump's second term in office. The President made numerous comments about adding Canada to the United States, famously calling outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau a "governor" for being like the governor of a U.S. state.

These comments have evoked a fervent nationalist reaction in Canada and have emerged as a central issue in the election.

U.S. politics impacting Canadian elections

While Trump boasted that he has had "very nice conversations" with Carney and made it seem like he wishes to avoid entanglement in the Canadian election, his presence is nevertheless intimidating. During Canadian voter interviews, particularly in Quebec, people expressed concerns about what the U.S. president would say and sought strong leadership to defend Canadian interests.

The election campaign has been impacted by continued economic tensions. U.S. President Trump's economic measures, including the imposition of tariffs on Canadian exports, have escalated economic pressure. A 25% tariff on Canadian-built automobiles, imposed in March, was the latest in a series of protectionist measures.

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has strongly criticized Trump's economic policies. Soon after news of the auto tariffs was announced, Poilievre publicly denounced the move as "unjustified and unprovoked," marking a unified response by Canadian leaders to the escalating trade war.

During a French-language debate last week, the four leaders of the major parties were questioned about how they would handle the strained relationship with the Trump administration. Both PM Carney and Poilievre, whose Conservative Party is +290 according to the Canada election odds to win the election, were best positioned to defend Canada's economic interests and counteract the effect of U.S. tariffs.

Polling indicates the Liberals have a slight advantage among voters. In recent weeks, the gap has narrowed ahead of the election, though the Liberal Party remains the favourite at the best Canada election betting sites.

Voter turnout also appears robust, with Elections Canada stating that over seven million Canadians have already cast their ballots through early voting channels, shattering records. The large turnout could be because of heightened anxiety about the economy and sovereignty, which have been key features of the campaign narrative.